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Influence and Escalation

Implications of Russian and Chinese Influence Operations for Crisis Management

Rebecca Hersman; Eric Brewer; Lindsey Sheppard and Maxwell Simon

Technology-enabled influence operations, including disinformation, will likely figure prominently in adversary efforts to impede U.S. crisis response and alliance management in high-risk, high-impact scenarios under a nuclear shadow. Both Russia and China recognize their conventional military disadvantage vis-à-vis conflict with the United States. As a result, both nations use sub-conventional tactics and operations to support their preferred strategies for achieving favorable outcomes while attempting to limit escalation risks. Such strategies include an array of activities loosely identified as influence operations, focused on using and manipulating information in covert, deniable, or obscure ways to shape the strategic environment.

This report presents eight scenarios—four focused on Russia and four focused on China—that invite potential escalation risks and demonstrate how the tools and tactics of influence operations could be employed to challenge detection, response, and crisis management. It explores a range of potential escalatory pathways and destabilizing consequences if adversary influence operations engage strategic interests and targets in high-risk scenarios and identifies key takeaways and recommendations for policymakers to better identify and defend against adversary influence operations.

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Rowman & Littlefield Publishers / Center for Strategic & International Studies
Pages: 72 • Trim: 8½ x 11
978-1-5381-4045-1 • Paperback • January 2022 • $48.00 • (£37.00)
978-1-5381-4046-8 • eBook • January 2022 • $45.50 • (£35.00)
Series: CSIS Reports
Subjects: Political Science / Security (National & International), Political Science / World / Asian, Political Science / World / Russian & Former Soviet Union

Rebecca Hersman is director of the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) and senioradviser with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Eric Brewer is deputy director and senior fellow with the Project on Nuclear Issues at CSIS.

Lindsey Sheppard is a former fellow with the International Security Program at CSIS.

Maxwell Simon is a former program coordinator and research assistant with the Project on Nuclear Issues in the International Security Program at CSIS.

CONTENTS

Executive Summary V

Introduction 1

1 | Project Objective and Scope 2

2 | Influence Tactics, Techniques, and Trends 5

3 | The Information Ecosystem and Digital Influence Technologies 11

4 | Exploring the Connection between Influence Operations and Escalation Risk 19

5 | Key Findings and Recommendations 28

Appendix A: Russia-Focused Scenarios 32

Appendix B: China-Focused Scenarios 42

About the Authors 51

Endnotes 53

Influence and Escalation

Implications of Russian and Chinese Influence Operations for Crisis Management

Cover Image
Paperback
eBook
Summary
Summary
  • Technology-enabled influence operations, including disinformation, will likely figure prominently in adversary efforts to impede U.S. crisis response and alliance management in high-risk, high-impact scenarios under a nuclear shadow. Both Russia and China recognize their conventional military disadvantage vis-à-vis conflict with the United States. As a result, both nations use sub-conventional tactics and operations to support their preferred strategies for achieving favorable outcomes while attempting to limit escalation risks. Such strategies include an array of activities loosely identified as influence operations, focused on using and manipulating information in covert, deniable, or obscure ways to shape the strategic environment.

    This report presents eight scenarios—four focused on Russia and four focused on China—that invite potential escalation risks and demonstrate how the tools and tactics of influence operations could be employed to challenge detection, response, and crisis management. It explores a range of potential escalatory pathways and destabilizing consequences if adversary influence operations engage strategic interests and targets in high-risk scenarios and identifies key takeaways and recommendations for policymakers to better identify and defend against adversary influence operations.

Details
Details
  • Rowman & Littlefield Publishers / Center for Strategic & International Studies
    Pages: 72 • Trim: 8½ x 11
    978-1-5381-4045-1 • Paperback • January 2022 • $48.00 • (£37.00)
    978-1-5381-4046-8 • eBook • January 2022 • $45.50 • (£35.00)
    Series: CSIS Reports
    Subjects: Political Science / Security (National & International), Political Science / World / Asian, Political Science / World / Russian & Former Soviet Union
Author
Author
  • Rebecca Hersman is director of the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) and senioradviser with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

    Eric Brewer is deputy director and senior fellow with the Project on Nuclear Issues at CSIS.

    Lindsey Sheppard is a former fellow with the International Security Program at CSIS.

    Maxwell Simon is a former program coordinator and research assistant with the Project on Nuclear Issues in the International Security Program at CSIS.

Table of Contents
Table of Contents
  • CONTENTS

    Executive Summary V

    Introduction 1

    1 | Project Objective and Scope 2

    2 | Influence Tactics, Techniques, and Trends 5

    3 | The Information Ecosystem and Digital Influence Technologies 11

    4 | Exploring the Connection between Influence Operations and Escalation Risk 19

    5 | Key Findings and Recommendations 28

    Appendix A: Russia-Focused Scenarios 32

    Appendix B: China-Focused Scenarios 42

    About the Authors 51

    Endnotes 53

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